Process-oriented risk assessment of interference press-fit for marine stern bearings under open-air meteorological conditions

Interference press-fitting is a generally irreversible operation in stern-bearing installation. Outdoor temperature, wind, and solar exposure can create non-uniform thermal deformation and alter the effective interference. The present model resolves airflow and solar radiation, is assessed against observations from one measured installation, and is subsequently applied to four prescribed meteorological combinations. The analysis covers pre-installation deformation, insertion load, and post-assembly cylindricity; the four meteorological scenarios were not independently validated. The high-temperature, high-radiation, low-wind case exhibits the greatest comparative risk, with a 151% increase in peak force and a calculated cylindricity error of 1.412 mm. The low-temperature, low-radiation, high-wind case produces the most uniform temperature field and the load response closest to the reference condition. The results provide a basis for meteorology-informed scheduling and monitoring, subject to project-specific acceptance limits and the validation uncertainties of the model.