A deterministic model of the population biology of the non-infective free-living phase of Ostertagia ostertagi is described and tested. A comparison of field and laboratory studies indicates that the pre-infective larvae of O. ostertagi spend about twice as long in this phase in the field as in laboratory culture (13 days and 7 days respectively at 15 degrees C), and that the subsequent transition (i.e. second moult) to the infective phase also proceeds at a much slower rate (about 10 times less at 15 degrees C) in the field. Because of this discrepancy, estimates of model parameters are based entirely on measurements from field studies. A two-parameter model of pre-infective development in the field is derived. It describes egg and larval development as a direct non-linear function of air temperature. We also show that the mortality of the eggs and pre-infective larvae increases with temperature (although this relationship probably also subsumes a dependence on faecal moisture content). The model is shown to be a good mimic of the population dynamics of the non-infective free-living phase when tested against an independent data set, and is the basis of a larger model of the epidemiology of ostertagiasis.
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Grenfell et al. (1986) studied this question.
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