Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of a composite index measuring sustainable energy transition in the European Union

indicators that cover three pillars of sustainable energy transition that include economic and development, human and social and natural and environmental dimensions. The weights of the base indicators are based on expert panel opinion, which was determined referencing sustainability and policy considerations. Base indicators’ aggregation summarises weighted standardised values. Regarding the sensitivity of the composite index, these two factors are found to be the most probable sources of uncertainty. These factors contribute to the final index value that calculates the extent of uncertainty using the Monte Carlo methodology. This study also uses variance-based sensitivity analysis to identify the most significant factors of uncertainty. The results provide a comprehensive overview of EU member states’ progress in sustainable energy transition that is primarily unbiased as changing the chosen input factors only induces a maximum average rank change of three. Out of the two factors assessed, the aggregation method is found to be the greater source of uncertainty.