Ecosystem Complexity and Climate Adaptation in Oman: Climate-Water-Ecosystem Nexus

This study examines the relationships among climate variability, water-related variables, and vegetation dynamics across the Sultanate of Oman. Using six decades of climatic and hydrological data, the study evaluates long-term climate variability patterns, identifies the main climatic and ecohydrological factors associated with native vegetation dynamics, and proposes a Climate–Water–Ecosystem framework to explore interactions, trade-offs, and synergies within arid environments. The findings indicate a general decline in vegetation cover across many regions of Oman, despite localized increases in vegetation health (NDVI) in some governorates. Significant associations were identified between vegetation dynamics and climatic and hydrological variables. NDVI was most strongly associated with maximum and minimum temperatures and total precipitation, whereas vegetation cover was more strongly associated with evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and total evaporation. The proposed Climate–Water–Ecosystem framework integrates empirical findings to illustrate direct and indirect interactions among climate variability, water availability, and vegetation responses, providing a conceptual basis to support ecological restoration, revegetation planning, and sustainable water management in arid and semi-arid environments.