A Confirmatory Simulation Test of Constraint Incorporation in Stabilization Theory

Stabilization Theory (ST) holds that a configuration becomes or stays distinguishable through a relation of pressure and constraint, and that a stabilized configuration can later act as a constraint itself. This working paper reports a confirmatory simulation test of that later step. In a simulated workplace of 24 workers, the study asks whether an organization that has formed, and that one instrument identifies as a constraint, changes how much work gets done when its roles are scrambled, as measured by a second instrument on different job classes. The analysis plan was fixed and its SHA-256 recorded before the confirmatory draw of 200 runs. In all 100 histories with commitment, the organization formed first, Constraint was identified later, and scrambling changed completed work at and after identification. Without commitment, Constraint was never identified. The scrambling check was expected to discriminate poorly, and it did, so the weight of the test rests on the Constraint mark. A plain count of committed workers separates the two conditions equally well, and the Constraint mark may largely track commitment level. The study shows that the claim can be stated and tested in advance. It does not show predictive advantage over simpler measures.