Will this time be different? Just transition pathways in eastern and Southern Africa’s critical minerals sector

The global energy transition is driving unprecedented demand for critical minerals required for renewable energy technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. However, the future translation of mineral reserves into equitable socio-economic development in the region depends on policy frameworks and governance systems that promote inclusive participation, recognition, and benefit-sharing. This paper examines pathways for inclusive economic transformation, analyzing the conditions required to ensure mining-affected communities benefit equitably from the critical minerals boom. We employ a justice-centered framework of distributional, procedural, recognition and restorative justice to analyze five countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Zambia, Malawi, and Burundi) through stakeholder interviews with 43 actors and document and policy analysis, including Malawi and Burundi, whose emerging sectors are largely absent from the peer-reviewed record. Across the five cases the four dimensions are not encountered as separate problems. Findings suggest that employment opportunities do not always reach local populations, revenue mechanisms face transparency challenges, consultation processes have limited influence over outcomes, customary tenure is inconsistently recognized, and environmental legacies often persist without adequate remediation. Ensuring that the substantial economic opportunities created by critical mineral demand are realized inclusively will require simultaneous interventions across all four justice dimensions.