Governance effectiveness of new rural elites and evaluation of rural revitalization outcomes: Evidence from 1302 samples in China

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

In the context of rural revitalization, new rural elites serve as an endogenous governance force. The association between their governance effectiveness and villagers' evaluation of revitalization outcomes concerns the modernization of grassroots governance. Based on 1,302 nonprobability samples from the 2025 China Social Governance Survey (CSGS) across 31 provinces, this study employs OLS regression, propensity score matching (PSM), placebo tests, and a chain mediation model to examine this association and its mechanisms. The findings demonstrate a statistically significant positive association between the governance effectiveness of new rural elites and the villagers' assessments of revitalization outcomes. This association remains robust after applying various robustness checks and strategies to mitigate endogeneity. Mechanism analysis reveals that "governance process quality" and "governance outcome quality" constitute a chain mediation path: governance effectiveness is positively associated with governance outcomes by optimizing the governance process, which is ultimately associated with higher evaluations (effect value = 0.037, accounting for 36% of the total effect). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this positive association is highly consistent across groups of different ages, education levels, identities, and regions, without significant gradient differences, suggesting both equity and universality. This paper clarifies the mechanisms and boundaries by which governance effectiveness translates into perceptible outcomes, providing empirical evidence to guide the institutionalized participation of new rural elites and to comprehensively promote rural revitalization.