The Heat Is on: How Temperature Shifts Threaten Agricultural Sustainability in China

Sustainable agriculture requires gains in productivity and resource-use efficiency while safeguarding food security and reducing carbon emissions. Agricultural carbon total factor productivity (ACTFP) captures these joint dimensions but may be undermined by rising temperatures. We measure ACTFP using data envelopment analysis and a two-period Malmquist–Luenberger index that treats carbon emissions as an undesirable output. Using 527 province-year observations from 31 Chinese provinces during 2005–2021, we estimate province- and year-fixed-effects models with NCEI temperature data. A 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature is associated with a 0.067 decrease in log ACTFP. Relative to the 8–12 °C reference bin, one additional day with a daily mean temperature of at least 32 °C is associated with a 0.014 decrease in log ACTFP. One additional day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C is associated with a 0.003 decrease in log ACTFP. These associations vary by grain-producing status, temperature variability, and geographical location, and primarily reflect impeded efficiency improvement rather than technological progress. The findings can inform agricultural and climate policymakers in designing region-specific adaptation measures to promote climate-resilient, low-carbon agriculture.