Digital Financial Inclusion and Equality of Opportunity in China: Intergenerational Income Persistence, Occupational Decoupling, and Human-Capital Thresholds

Digital financial inclusion may weaken the extent to which economic outcomes depend on family background. Using five waves of the China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2022, matched with the Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index and provincial socioeconomic indicators, this study examines the relationship between digital financial development and intergenerational income persistence in China. The baseline model includes province and year fixed effects and tests whether digital finance changes the relationship between paternal and offspring income. We also use rank–rank mobility, individual fixed effects, and province-specific trends. The results show that digital financial inclusion is associated with significantly weaker intergenerational income persistence. The rank–rank estimates lead to the same conclusion. Occupational analysis shows that digital finance reduces the probability that offspring remain in the same broad occupational category as their fathers, although it does not significantly increase upward occupational movement. The equalizing effect is stronger when paternal education is lower and is concentrated mainly among offspring with no more than 12 years of schooling. These findings suggest that digital financial inclusion can support equality of opportunity by reducing dependence on inherited economic and occupational resources.