Nodal centrality and the asymmetric welfare effects of cross-border infrastructure: A multi-stage dynamic evaluation of the New China-Myanmar-Indian Ocean Corridor

As global value chains undergo profound restructuring, the New China–Myanmar–Indian Ocean Sea–Rail Multi-modal Transport Corridor is gradually emerging as a vital cross-border transport link connecting China's southwestern hinterland with the Indian Ocean and holds the potential to promote regional economic integration. Drawing upon new economic geography theory, this study combines trade network analysis with the recursive-dynamic “Global Trade Analysis Project” model to quantify the spatially differentiated effects of this corridor on trade flows and economic welfare. The findings indicate that the New Corridor drives a systematic restructuring of the regional trade landscape through the combined effects of trade creation and trade diversion, and that its economic benefits exhibit nonlinear growth as infrastructure matures. Moreover, as the corridor matures, terms of trade improvements become more strongly associated with trade-network embeddedness, while direct effects remain concentrated in anchor economies. Additionally, welfare gains, as measured by equivalent variation, is driven primarily by price and efficiency effects, rather than by an expansion in actual output. At the same time, there is a marked asymmetry in the distribution of real GDP and welfare effects across economies with different functions within the corridor. By linking topological network nodes with general equilibrium results, this study reveals the inherent asymmetry in welfare redistribution in cross-border infrastructure development and provides strategic policy insights for stakeholders seeking to transition from the “corridor economy” model to deeper industrial chain integration.