4th Downs Decoded: A Selection-Bias-Adjusted Study of Player Impact on Fourth Down Conversions in the NFL

This research breaks down fourth downs in the NFL by identifying crucial player positions and evaluating how coaches incorporate different factors in their decision-making process. Using a newly engineered dataset that includes detailed player statistics 1 from 2017–2023, we analyze the causal factors influencing fourth down decisions and outcomes. Our non-linear sample selection correction reveals that coaches factor in unobserved variables during fourth down decisions that can predict the likelihood of a fourth down conversion. With selection bias accounted for, we identify the key player characteristics that influence a 4th down conversion. We further observe that coaches are making the decision to attempt a 4th down based on player characteristics that are not crucial to a 4th down.