An Architecture-Level Framework for Earth–Moon Reference-Clock Modeling, Timing Compensation, and PNT Sensitivity Analysis

Accurate characterization and compensation of Earth–Moon reference-clock differences are important for cislunar positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) architectures. This study develops an integrated analytical framework that connects modeled Earth–Moon timing differences, compensation residuals, and position-domain sensitivity. A first-order weak-field and slow-motion model is used to generate an idealized Earth–Moon reference-clock difference series, which accumulates to approximately 20.48 ms over 365.25 days under the adopted assumptions. Compensation performance is evaluated using chronological training and held-out evaluation for autonomous forecast models, together with full-interval correction-product reconstruction. Because the reference and validation sequences are generated within the same analytical framework, the forecast results represent model-consistent internal validation rather than independent empirical evidence of real Earth–Moon clock predictability. The resulting timing residuals are propagated through a linearized four-state least-squares estimator that jointly solves for three-dimensional position and receiver-clock range bias. The analysis shows that the position-domain effect of a timing residual depends not only on its magnitude, but also on its source-dependent structure, observation geometry, estimator conditioning, and non-timing error floor. The inferred timing thresholds are therefore conditional architecture-level sensitivity results for the adopted estimator, controlled geometries, and stochastic error model, rather than operational requirements for a specific lunar navigation constellation. The framework provides a transparent baseline for future studies incorporating higher-order clock modeling, dynamic orbit determination, sequential estimation, time-varying visibility, correlated measurement errors, inter-satellite measurements, and independent Earth–Moon timing data.