Equity trade‑offs in global aviation education: evidence from a micro‑credential transition across 141 countries

Online professional aviation education holds significant potential to address the global aviation workforce shortage and advance equity for underrepresented learners, yet large-scale empirical evidence on participation, completion, and equity outcomes remains scarce. This study evaluates the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)–the University of Waterloo Aviation Fundamentals Education programme (AVIFUN), a longitudinal online professional education initiative spanning 3,026 learners across 141 countries from 2020 to 2025, with a focus on the equity implications of a structural transition from a long-format 20-hour model to a modular micro-credential architecture in July 2025. Using multivariable binary logistic regression, pre/post comparative analysis with Wilson score confidence intervals, and interaction modeling, the study examines how programme format, gender, Least Developed Country (LDC) status, and ICAO region independently and jointly predict certificate attainment. The micro-credential transition was associated with a near-fivefold increase in LDC participation (from 2.8% to 14.7%) and a rise in female enrolment from 26.1% in 2020 to 46.8% in 2025. These access gains were, however, accompanied by a significant decline in certificate attainment, with micro-credential learner-level certification (76.5% certifying any module) not significantly different from long-format certificate attainment (73.8%; learner-level OR = 1.105, p = 0.619). A 22.6 percentage-point gender completion gap within micro-credentials and significant regional heterogeneity further characterize the equity landscape. Module-level analysis confirms that gender and region did not systematically influence content selection, a positive equity outcome. The findings reveal a fundamental access-completion trade-off in micro-credential delivery and offer actionable design recommendations for second-generation programme architectures to sustain both access equity and completion equity in global aviation professional education.