From potential to impact: A composite indicator framework for ex-ante assessment of local impacts of green hydrogen in Sub-Saharan Africa

The utilization of green hydrogen as a means of achieving decarbonization targets is a concept that is receiving increasing levels of attention. One region that is emerging as a potential host for large-scale deployment of this technology is Sub-Saharan Africa. The present paper puts forward a methodological framework for the quantification of the multidimensional socio-economic and environmental impacts of green hydrogen projects before their deployment. This framework is composite in nature and indicator-based. The framework incorporates 26 indicators, which are structured across four core dimensions. These dimensions are as follows: Employment and Skills Development, Economic Value Creation, Domestic System Integration, and Resources and Environmental Footprint. The dimensions are then aggregated into a Green Hydrogen Impact Index (GHII). A significant contribution lies in operationalizing impact indicators through transparent assumptions and proxy variables, thus enabling application in contexts where data is scarce and hydrogen projects are not yet operational. The framework has been designed as a transferable and scalable methodological decision-support tool. It intends to support subsequent cross-country comparison and policy analysis rather than project-level prediction.