The search for life beyond the Solar System has long been influenced by two major tendencies: the habit of seeking life strictly modeled after Earth’s biology, and an observational bias toward easily detectable targets. In this study, I first examine the dimethyl sulfide (DMS) signal reported in the atmosphere of K2-18 b. I discuss how the 2023 observational signal remained statistically marginal, overlaps with methane absorption features, and how the planet is far more likely to be a gas-rich mini-Neptune rather than an ocean-bearing "Hycean" world. Next, I analyze TOI-700 d, located in the habitable zone of a quiet M2V red dwarf. With a radius of approximately 1.14 Earth radii, an insolation flux of ~0.86 of Earth's, and an absence of notable flare activity in TESS photometric data, TOI-700 d emerges as a substantially more stable and viable candidate. The central hypothesis I advocate is that on planets capable of sustaining favorable conditions over astronomical timescales—chiefly Earth and TOI-700 d—the emergence of life, at least at the microbial level, is virtually inevitable. Finally, considering the exponential acceleration of technology and the advancement of AI-driven observational methods, I predict that a compelling biosignature candidate will be confirmed on TOI-700 d or an analogous rocky world by 2033 at the latest. I base this prediction on the premise that self-improving artificial intelligence will drastically accelerate the design and deployment of novel observation technologies. I anticipate that government regulations over the next two years may temporarily decelerate this pace, but will not halt the trajectory.
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Atila Kümük (2026) studied this question.
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