When are payments for ecosystem services (PES) suitable for conflict-affected forest frontiers? Evidence from the Colombian Amazon

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are widely promoted as incentive-based conservation instruments, but their suitability cannot be assumed where land rights, territorial authority, and institutional continuity are contested. This study evaluates whether—and under what conditions—PES-labeled conservation agreements constitute a realistic strategy in La Macarena, a conflict-affected frontier of the Colombian Amazon. A multi-method case-study design combines extended field observation, a household survey ( n = 102), semi-structured interviews ( n = 23), and secondary land-use and livestock data. Cattle ranching was the dominant livelihood through which households generated income, stored wealth, managed risk, and signaled land use. Prior participation in PES was limited (14.7%), and re-enrollment was uncommon despite reported compliance. Respondents evaluated agreements as packages of duration, flexibility, technical support, institutional continuity, and personal safety rather than as payments alone. The evidence does not support PES as a stand-alone or principal conservation strategy under current conditions: insecure and overlapping rights, uneven monitoring access, short project cycles, and contested authority weaken additionality, conditionality, and enforceability. PES may nevertheless have a selective, complementary role where agreements are co-designed, financing and monitoring are credible, participation does not increase exposure to harm, and payments are combined with tenure safeguards and viable livelihood transitions. Where these prerequisites are absent, policy should first strengthen rights protection, territorial governance, land-use enforcement, supply-chain accountability, and sustained support for livelihood transitions before relying on conditional household payments. The study reframes low participation not simply as a design failure, but as evidence for instrument choice.