Regional resilience without deep integration: adaptive interstate coordination in Central Asia

Introduction Since 2016, cooperation among Central Asian states has intensified despite the continued absence of supranational institutions and substantial delegation of authority. This development challenges integration-centred approaches that associate durable regional cooperation with institutional deepening. This study examines why regional cooperation in Central Asia has become more resilient under conditions of limited institutionalization and develops the concept of adaptive interstate coordination to explain this pattern. Methods The study employs a qualitative case-study design covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan between 2016 and 2025. It combines documentary analysis, process tracing, and structured comparison of five coordination episodes. The analysis draws on official documents, interstate agreements, statistical indicators, materials from international organizations, and peer-reviewed research. Regional resilience is assessed through four dimensions: continuity, adaptation, functional maintenance, and containment of fragmentation. Results The findings identify four interrelated mechanisms of adaptive interstate coordination: pragmatic bilateral problem-solving, flexible multilateral consultation, leadership diplomacy, and institutional diversification. Bilateral normalization reduced political and practical barriers to wider regional interaction, while the Consultative Meetings sustained region-wide political dialogue without supranational authority. Leadership diplomacy facilitated the routinization of coordination, although its effects remain partly dependent on high-level political engagement. Institutional diversification enhanced adaptability when overlapping cooperation formats performed complementary functions. Evidence from external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent geopolitical disruptions, is strongest for continuity and functional maintenance, while evidence of institutional adaptation is more limited. Discussion The findings suggest that regional resilience does not necessarily require deep institutional integration. In Central Asia, resilience has emerged through the interaction of bilateral, regional, leadership-driven, and inter-institutional mechanisms while decision-making authority remains predominantly at the national level. The concept of adaptive interstate coordination contributes to comparative regionalism by providing a mechanism-based explanation of how weakly institutionalized regions can sustain cooperation and contain fragmentation without converging toward supranational integration.