Exploring the Spatial Roots of Crimes with System-Threatening Characteristics in Three Swedish Police Areas

This study examines whether place‑based patterns of violence against public officials, threats against public officials, obstruction of justice, and obstruction/sabotage of emergency services reflect a shared “system‑threatening” logic that undermines institutional functioning. Drawing on Routine Activity Theory (RAT) and Crime Pattern Theory (CPT), the study assesses whether these offenses exhibit recurring place-based opportunity structures across urban contexts. Police-recorded, geocoded incidents (2019–2024) from three Swedish urban regions, Gothenburg Northeast, Malmö South, and Botkyrka were analyzed using Risk Terrain Modeling (RTMDx) to identify environmental features associated with each offense type. Environmental predictors included open drug scenes, police‑designated vulnerable areas, local living‑condition indices, and built‑environment features such as transport nodes, commercial and social facilities, financial services, and institutional locations. Across offense types and study areas, public and social spaces recurred most consistently; vulnerable areas, transport, and financial services recurred but less universally. These findings are broadly consistent with RAT and CPT expectations, suggesting that system-threatening offenses concentrate around identifiable opportunity structures rather than being randomly distributed. Each study area nevertheless displayed a distinct spatial risk signature, indicating that the configuration and intensity of risk are context dependent. The findings support the plausibility of a shared system-threatening dimension while highlighting meaningful local variation.