Spatiotemporal Mismatch and Transition Dynamics Between Forest Carbon Sequestration Value and Forest Ecotourism Development Capacity in Xizang

Forest ecological-product value depends on both ecological-resource supply and regional development conditions. Using the seven prefecture-level divisions of Xizang from 2016 to 2024, this study examined forests classified in annual land-cover data, mainly including coniferous, broad-leaved, and mixed forests. Potential annual forest carbon dioxide sequestration was estimated from forest cover and vegetation productivity, and a ten-indicator index was used to characterize forest ecotourism development capacity. The spatial relationship and temporal stability of the two dimensions were then assessed. Potential annual forest carbon dioxide sequestration ranged from 54.52 to 60.26 million tonnes, corresponding to an estimated value of 5.24–5.79 billion Chinese yuan under the domestic benchmark carbon-price scenario. Nyingchi and Shannan jointly accounted for 95.30% of the estimated value, while Chamdo formed a secondary supply area. Forest ecotourism development capacity generally increased but remained spatially uneven. The two dimensions showed a positive but moderate spatial association, and 89.3% of adjacent-year matching types remained unchanged. These results suggest a relatively persistent spatial mismatch between forest carbon-sequestration supply and ecotourism development capacity. Forest ecotourism may therefore provide one potential pathway for broader forest ecological-product value realization, although the actual effects depend on local market conditions, ecological constraints, and benefit-sharing arrangements.