From climate history to prediction: modeling the Naples precipitation record for multidecadal forecasts in the central Mediterranean

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Long-term instrumental records are essential for understanding Mediterranean climate variability and improving decadal precipitation forecasts. The 139-year Naples Capodimonte annual precipitation series (1884–2022) provides a unique climate history, capturing atmospheric transients within natural variability. We applied a data-driven E-PARMAX(TVAR)-CSD model incorporating an Atmospheric Forcing Index (AFI) that integrates AO, AMO, SCAND, and seasonal sea-level pressure gradients. The model was trained on 1884–1992, validated against 1993–2022, and used to project 2023–2062 precipitation. Results reveal a dominant multidecadal (∼57-year) oscillation shaping wet and dry phases. Forecasts indicate a near-term decline peaking around 2035, followed by a wetter, more variable phase extending to 2062. These patterns reflect both historical dynamics and emerging Mediterranean climate signals, with implications for hydrology, geomorphology, and regional climate adaptation.