Exploring the impact of heat pump integration on the electrification of existing industrial utility systems

Power-to-heat technologies can substantially reduce industrial CO2 emissions, yet their adoption is hindered by uncertain economics and complex integration choices. This study examines how different levels of heat pump integration influence the design and cost-effectiveness of electrified heating utility systems under varying energy price scenarios and a complete phase-out of natural gas. An optimisation model was applied to a biodiesel plant process to explore the optimal portfolio of heat pumps, mechanical vapour compressors, electric boilers, hydrogen boilers, and thermal storage. Results show that low to medium heat pump integration offers the most economical value by leveraging existing infrastructure and process heat, while high integration levels fail to deliver additional economic benefits due to substantial installation costs. Price volatility primarily drives the deployment of electric boilers and thermal storage for load shifting, whereas heat pumps remain sized to constant process demand and are never coupled with storage. Overall, findings indicate that (a) moderate integration results in the best economic performance, (b) utilising existing infrastructure is critical, and (c) the optimal integration of heat pumps is mainly defined by the average electricity price.