Climate-Related Disasters and Socio-Economic Impacts: Global Evidence and Implications for Sustainability

Climate-related disasters are increasingly posing challenges to sustainable development, yet the long-term evolution of their occurrence and socio-economic impacts, particularly the heterogeneity of these impacts across socio-economic contexts, remain insufficiently understood. This study examines long-term trends in climate-related disaster frequency and normalized socio-economic impacts over 1970–2024, with particular emphasis on the socio-economic heterogeneity of disaster impacts across income groups. Data were obtained from EM-DAT for climate-related disaster records and the World Bank for GDP, population, and income-group classification. Mortality and affected population were normalized by national population, while reported economic losses were normalized by national GDP. Long-term trends were evaluated using Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), with Mann–Kendall (MK)-based analyses used for comparison. Socio-economic heterogeneity was examined across low-income (L), lower-middle-income (LM), upper-middle-income (UM), and high-income (H) economies. Recorded climate-related disaster frequency increased significantly, whereas ITA identified no significant trends in GDP-normalized economic losses, affected population, and mortality. Complementary MK analyses indicated declines in GDP-normalized economic losses and mortality, but no significant trend in affected population. Income-group analysis revealed pronounced socio-economic heterogeneity, with economic losses, affected population, and mortality following distinct temporal trajectories across L, LM, UM, and H economies. These findings indicate that long-term changes in recorded disaster occurrence are not uniformly reflected in human and economic impacts, while global aggregate trends can obscure important socio-economic differences. The results highlight the importance of considering socio-economic heterogeneity when interpreting long-term trends in climate-related disasters.