Does Paraguay's Diplomatic Recognition of Taiwan Constitute an Anomaly?

Paraguay is among the few remaining Taiwan recognisers, a stance often criticised as economically costly given China's global influence. This article challenges that view, arguing that Paraguay's policy is less anomalous once elite interests, shared values and revised economic estimates are considered. Reevaluating the ‘Taiwan cost’ assumption shows that expected gains from switching are smaller and more uncertain than assumed. Using a framework combining elite theory, constructivism and rational choice with mixed data, the article finds that Paraguay's position reflects a bounded, strategic choice shaped by elite incentives, identity narratives and constrained economic trade-offs rather than an economic anomaly.