Incoherence: Cognitive Tendency Or Response Bias? A Model-Based Approach

This study investigates incoherence in probabilistic reasoning and examines the roles of conspiratorial mindset as well as individual response styles. We will test approximately 100 German-speaking adults using a 2 × 2 × 2 within-subject factorial design. Participants will rate the probability of statement pairs about fictional scenarios. Incoherence will be assessed based on adherence to the axioms of classical probability theory (Miani et al., 2026). Finally, we will apply the Latent State and Response Style (LaSARS) model of Grimmond et al. (2025). The LaSARS model separates true underlying beliefs from rating scale habits, allowing us to examine whether accounting for individual response styles changes observed incoherence (Grimmond et al., 2025).