Climatic heterogeneity determines the distribution and resilience of Tibetan Plateau rock glaciers

Rock glaciers (RGs) are pivotal indicators of mountain permafrost, yet the environmental controls governing their distribution patterns remain poorly understood. Using a generalized boosted model and an inventory of over 40,000 RGs, this study reveals regional shifts in the dominant environmental controls of RG distribution across the Tibetan Plateau. In the westerly-dominated northwest, snow duration days are the primary control, indicating snow as the main ice source; whereas wind speed, overlooked in earlier studies, emerges as the leading driver in the monsoon-influenced southeast. Specifically, wind speeds exceeding 3.2 m·s −1 favor RG occurrence, possibly by enhancing ventilation-induced cooling within coarse blocky layers. Subregional models outperform plateau-wide models by better capturing localized environmental thresholds, underscoring the importance of regionalized approaches for permafrost prediction. Projections further suggest that climatic suitability for RG occurrence remains relatively resilient to future warming scenarios, with implications for the potential role of RGs as hydrological buffers in high-mountain environments.