Key result
Metabolic risk factors account for ~105,000 stroke deaths in China, driving massive projected GDP losses.
Why the study?
The combined long-term macroeconomic consequences of hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia for ischemic stroke in the Chinese working-age population remain poorly quantified.
Observational
Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute mortality and macroeconomic burden of ischemic stroke attributable to metabolic risk factors in Chinese working-age adults is projected to rise substantially, highlighting the need for targeted prevention.
Projected stroke burden from metabolic risks in working-age Chinese adults may prioritize prevention; leaves open intervention effects on GDP losses.
Background: Hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia are the leading modifiable risk factors for ischemic stroke in China, yet their combined long-term macroeconomic consequences for the working-age population remain poorly quantified. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we assessed deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to these three metabolic risk factors among Chinese adults aged 20–64 years from 1990 to 2023. Temporal trends were evaluated via Joinpoint regression. Future disease burden through 2050 was projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. The macroeconomic burden from 2024 to 2030 was estimated using a Bayesian productivity-adjusted life-year (PALY) framework, with GDP losses expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP) international dollars (Intl$). Results: In 2023, these risk factors accounted for 105,469 deaths and 5,246,634 DALYs, with age-standardized rates of 12.98 and 645.85 per 100,000, respectively. Age-standardized rates declined consistently from 1990 to 2023 (AAPC: −3.07% for mortality; −2.18% for DALYs). Despite this, the absolute number of deaths is projected to reach 249,779 by 2050. The macroeconomic burden is projected to escalate to 4.08 million PALYs lost and a GDP loss of PPP intl $162.74 billion by 2030, disproportionately affecting males and adults aged 55–64 years. Conclusion: Although age-standardized burden has declined, the absolute and macroeconomic burden attributable to metabolic risk factors is projected to rise substantially, underscoring the urgent need for integrated prevention targeting high-risk working-age groups.
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Zeng et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Ischemic stroke. Hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia was evaluated on Deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and macroeconomic burden (productivity-adjusted life-years lost and GDP loss). Hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia caused 105,469 stroke deaths in Chinese adults in 2023, with projected GDP losses reaching PPP intl $162.74 billion by 2030.
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