A multi-model analysis of hydrogen uptake in a climate-neutral Europe

Using an ensemble of integrated assessment models, we quantify the role of hydrogen in Europe’s energy transition under multiple climate policy scenarios. Hydrogen uptake in our net-zero scenario varies widely across models, ranging from 0.3 to 11.7 exajoules (average 4 exajoules) by 2050 and corresponding to 1-14% (average 7%) of final energy consumption, primarily in industry and synthetic fuel production. Hydrogen contributes minimally to electricity generation, and its direct use in transport and buildings remains limited. Despite projected carbon dioxide prices of 150–250 euros per tonne by 2030, hydrogen adoption remains below 2% (7 million tonnes) of final energy consumption, far below the European Union’s 2030 target of 20 million tonnes of green hydrogen from domestic production and imports. Hydrogen trade is scarcely modelled and therefore underrepresented. Our results support prioritizing near-term electrification while preparing strategically today for large-scale hydrogen expansion after 2040. Across multiple European energy models, deep decarbonization relies on strong early electrification, while hydrogen expands mainly after 2040 in hard-to-abate sectors; stronger policy support is essential for robust net-zero pathways.