Screening Electric-Vehicle Charging Against Positive Model-to-Meter Renewable-Energy Residuals: Smart G2V Potential and a V2G Capacity Envelope

This study develops a deterministic annual screening model for matching electric-vehicle (EV) charging demand with the positive part of modelled minus metered renewable-energy production. Distribution-system-operator-supplied records for photovoltaic (PV), wind and hydropower installations in 2020–2025 were combined with a supplier-provided extract from the Central Register of Vehicles and Drivers (CEPiK) covering 30 models and 20,043 vehicles. The corrected calculation assigns each technology–year–capacity-class residual once across the full fleet, then applies energy, charger-power, connection and availability limits. Annual source-side demand is 54.389 GWh. In the 2025 large-source cases, Smart G2V covers 46.31% of demand for PV, 64.36% for hydropower and 100.00% for wind, compared with 16.21%, 22.53% and 98.97% under immediate charging. Wind offers 249.660 GWh of technically accessible energy, but only 21.79% is used after EV demand is saturated. Four model labels, representing 7109 vehicles, form a theoretical V2G grid-delivery envelope of 101.636 MWh per event and 9.274 GWh/year at 0.25 equivalent cycles/day. This envelope is not added to renewable-energy utilisation. The results are conditional annual bounds, not measured curtailment or an operational dispatch result; timestamped generation, charging availability, state of charge and network topology are required for deployment analysis.