The toll of voting in a pandemic? Regional elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria

This study investigates whether the regional elections held in the German state of Bavaria on March 15 of 2020 — shortly after the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic — contributed to the spread of COVID-19 cases and COVID-related deaths. Constructing synthetic controls for each of Bavaria’s 96 districts based on non-Bavarian German districts, we find that over a third of the increase in positive test results cannot be explained by district-level demographic, economic, health or child care characteristics, nor by the distance to Ischgl — a proxy for skiing tourism associated with the first COVID-19 wave in Germany. Within Bavaria, districts with higher voter participation witnessed a steeper increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths after the election, while controlling for alternative drivers, such as the distance to Ischgl and the number of strong-beer festivals. Our results are highly robust and suggest that an unfortunate timing of elections contributed to the spreading of an infectious disease.