The impact of achieving poverty eradication SDG1 on AIDS incidence in Latin America by 2030: a multi-country mathematical modeling analysis

The global polycrisis has intensified poverty and social inequalities, increasing the vulnerability of disadvantaged populations to HIV infection and progression to AIDS. Our study examined how ending poverty by 2030, the sustainable development goal 1 (SDG1) could influence AIDS incidence in seven Latin American countries. Utilizing country-specific compartmental models, we projected trends of AIDS incidence from 2020 to 2030. We integrated poverty trends into the models across three potential scenarios: increasing poverty due to economic downturns, a baseline (steady-state trend), and one where poverty decreases until eradication by 2030. Our study analyzed Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru, that represents 76.3% of the LA population. Under a scenario of gradually increasing poverty, our estimates indicate a rise in AIDS incidence from 6.13% (95% CI: 5.96–6.21) in Argentina to 13.87% (95% CI: 13.53–14.12) in Ecuador, compared to the baseline scenario. In the SDG1 scenario, AIDS incidence would decrease in all countries, with reductions ranging from 3.75% (95% CI: 3.65–3.74) in Chile to 14.15% (95% CI: 14.01–14.34) in Colombia. Our analysis indicates that poverty eradication (SDG 1) may help reduce the HIV/AIDS burden in Latin America, with potential relevance for other low- and middle-income countries, supportin progress toward SDG 3.3 related to HIV/AIDS.