The carbon reduction effect evaluation of technology-finance pilot policy: evidence from 226 Chinese cities

Balancing economic growth with carbon emission reduction lies at the core of China’s ‘dual carbon’ goals. This study investigates the carbon abatement effects and influencing mechanisms of the technology-finance pilot policy (TFPP). Using panel data for 226 cities over 2010–2022, the study calculates urban carbon emission efficiency (CEE) via the SBM model and evaluates policy effects using the multi-period difference-in-differences model and Spatial Durbin Model. The study’s datasets and the findings are available from the corresponding author as follows. First, the TFPP significantly improves urban CEE, accompanied by an evident spatial spillover effect, a conclusion that remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Second, mechanism analysis identifies three transmission channels: lowering energy consumption intensity, upgrading industrial structure, and boosting green innovation. Third, the policy effects are more pronounced in eastern regions, large cities and resource-based cities. Differentiated implementation strategies for the TFPP are therefore proposed, including strengthened regional coordinated carbon reduction and improved financial support capacity in non-pilot regions. This paper clarifies influences, heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects of the TFPP on CEE, and provides policy implications for regional collaborative governance.