Determinants of Marketed Rice Surplus among Smallholders in Benin

Benin's rice sector meets less than half of national demand despite a threefold increase in production over the past decade, yet the commercialization constraints facing smallholders remain poorly understood. This study estimates, using two independent cross-sectional regression models applied to 120 smallholder rice farmers sampled in the Glazoué municipality (Benin), the determinants of the marketed surplus rate and the marketed quantity of rice. A mixed-methods design combines structured surveys with six focus group discussions. Adaptive price expectations are proxied by a three-year, CPI-deflated moving average of local prices within a static, cross-sectional adaptation of the Nerlove framework; heteroskedasticity-robust (HC3) standard errors are used for inference, and an instrumental-variable approach addresses the endogeneity of credit access. Rice selling price is positively and significantly associated with the commercialization rate. Access to credit, farm size, market distance, farming experience, and road accessibility are positively associated with marketed quantity, while self-consumption objectives and formal sales contracts are negatively associated with it. Fertilizer price shows a strong negative association with marketed quantity, indicating acute sensitivity to input costs. A significant gender income gap is also observed (women: USD 85.86 vs. men: USD 143.26/month). The results point to fertilizer voucher schemes, targeted rural road investment, and gender-responsive credit as candidate policy levers for expanding marketed rice supply and strengthening food security in deficit-prone areas, pending further validation.