AI-driven “new migrants”: skill-spatial mismatch and out-migration intention

While AI profoundly reshapes the labor market, its spatial impact remains under-researched. Addressing this, this paper uses data from the China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey and the China Patent Database across 250 prefecture-level cities during 2014–2018 to examine AI's effect on labor out-migration intention. Findings reveal AI significantly increases out-migration intention, especially among women and in non-digital hubs or central/western regions. Mechanistically, the results are consistent with a displacement channel involving routine jobs and a restructuring channel involving industrial shifts. These channels can be understood through a “skill-spatial mismatch” resulting from the changing spatial distribution of tasks. Furthermore, regional aging and fiscal support amplify the positive relationship between AI and out-migration intention. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for a spatially inclusive employment policy framework as AI reshapes employment geography. The findings concern workers' stated propensity to leave, which may precede future mobility, rather than observed migration flows.