Evaluating the Alignment Between Greenway Supply and Cycling Demand in a High-Density City

Urban greenways are increasingly promoted to support active mobility and sustainable transport in high-density cities. However, greenway development is often shaped by standardized planning frameworks and land availability rather than cycling demand. This study evaluates the alignment between greenway supply and recorded cycling demand in Shenzhen, China, using large-scale trajectory data and a supply and demand coordination framework. Coupling coordination analysis and spatial autocorrelation were used to assess their spatial correspondence. The results reveal uneven alignment between greenway supply and cycling demand across the city. The average coupling coordination degree was 0.575, indicating a basic but barely coordinated relationship. A Moran’s I value of 0.452 further indicates significant positive spatial autocorrelation in coordination across subdistricts. These findings highlight the need for demand-sensitive investment, cross-sectoral governance, and performance-based infrastructure appraisal. Embedding trajectory-based mobility data into transport policy frameworks may improve allocative efficiency and support more equitable and effective active mobility systems in rapidly urbanizing contexts.