Alcohol Use Growth Trajectories in Young Adolescence: Pathways and Predictors

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

New analytical tools have facilitated the exploration of the trajectories of alcohol use; however, there are a limited number of studies that explore early adolescence. A sample of 5,903 youths followed from sixth through eighth grade was used to (1) examine the trajectories of alcohol use and (2) determine the degree to which common correlates predicted these trajectories. Our models provided the most support for a four trajectory group solution with nearly half of the sample (49.3%) largely abstaining, more than a quarter of the sample (29.4%) experimenting and exhibiting small increases, 15.0% initiating early and exhibiting a consistent level of low use, and a small percentage (6.3%) rapidly progressing to a heavy level of drinking across the three-year period. Perceived behavioral control was the most consistent predictor of trajectory type, but peer norms and positive attitudes toward alcohol also played a role. The implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.