Understanding the motivation for supporting government-led nature-based solutions for flood resilience

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) offer promise for flood resilience in coastal communities, yet public support remains a barrier to implementation. In this exploratory cross-sectional study, we surveyed 165 residents in Wilmington, a flood-prone coastal city in North Carolina (NC), and used Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as an organizing framework to examine the perceptions associated with support for government-led NbS. Single survey items approximated perceived vulnerability (perceived future flood risk), perceived severity (worry about home safety during rainfall), response efficacy (perceived NbS effectiveness), and self-efficacy (having a household flood preparedness plan); prior flood damage was included as a contextual variable. Associations were estimated using ordinal logistic regression, with and without adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Perceived NbS effectiveness was the perception most strongly associated with support (OR = 7.79, p < .001), and this association held across all robustness checks. Perceived future flood risk was modestly associated with support (OR = 1.76, p = .031). Worry about home safety, the preparedness plan item, and prior flood damage were not associated with support. The outcome measures generalized support, and the sample overrepresents White, higher-income, and homeowner residents. Thus, these associations should not be interpreted causally or generalized beyond the sample. The findings suggest that credible evidence of NbS effectiveness may be an important component of building public support for government-led NbS.