Spillover Effects of Decarbonization on Global Value Chains: Policy Coordination Perspectives of Marketization and Digitalization

This study examines how market-based decarbonization affects global value chain (GVC) resilience and whether digital trade agreements amplify its effects through policy coordination. Using a country–industry panel of 61 countries from 2007 to 2022, we measure GVC resilience primarily through adaptability and employ double machine learning, complemented by an intensity-based difference-in-differences specification and causal mediation analysis. The results show that market-based decarbonization significantly enhances GVC adaptability, with stronger effects under more stringent climate commitments. Policy coordination generates additional benefits by reducing cross-border information and coordination frictions and facilitating the transmission of carbon-price incentives. Industrial-linkage upgrading and technological innovation are identified as key transmission channels. The effects are stronger in industries with longer value chains and relatively upstream positions, and in countries with higher levels of economic development and more efficient institutions. Further analysis shows that market-based decarbonization improves GVC stability and security, while policy coordination further strengthens security but may temporarily weaken stability during value-chain restructuring. This study provides novel empirical evidence and actionable policy insights into the role of market-based decarbonization and digital trade coordination in enhancing global value chain resilience.