Topograpaphic controls and future vulnerability of recurrent snowpatches in the Gaspé Peninsula (Québec, Canada)

Snowpatches are sensitive indicators of environmental change in mountain environments because their occurrence reflects interactions among topography, snow redistribution, and climate. Despite their ecological and geomorphological significance, snowpatches have never been systematically documented in the Gaspé Peninsula (eastern Canada). We combined Sentinel-2 imagery, a multi-year snowpatch recurrence inventory (2014–2025), GIS-derived topographic variables, Random Forest modeling, and climate projections to identify the factors controlling snowpatch distribution and evaluate their vulnerability to future climate change. Recurrent snowpatches were concentrated in a limited number of topographically favorable environments characterized by high elevation, reduced solar radiation, concave landforms, and predominantly east- to southeast-facing slopes. The relative importance of environmental factors associated with snowpatch occurrence differed between Mt. Albert and the McGerrigle Mountains, reflecting contrasts in landscape structure and vegetation cover. Climate projections indicate a substantial decline in regional snow-covered area during the twenty-first century under all future climate scenarios, with the strongest reductions occurring under high-emission pathways. These results demonstrate the strong dependence of recurrent snowpatch occurrence on nested topoclimatic controls and suggest that these features may become increasingly vulnerable under continued climatic warming.