Spatio-temporal analysis and forecasting of land use/land cover change in East Medinipur district, India using CA-Markov model

Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC) serve as essential indicators of global environmental changes. This study examined the LU/LC change in the East Medinipur district of West Bengal, India, using remote sensing data and the CA-Markov modeling approach. Through GIS tools and satellite imagery, the study maps, monitors, and analyzes LU/LC changes over a 20-year period (2001–2021), utilizing data from Landsat 4–5 and Landsat 8. Analytical tools including ArcGIS 9, IDRISI Terset, and ERDAS 2014 are employed to project LU/LC trends up to 2041. The results highlight significant transformations, notable reductions in agriculture, vegetation, barren land, and water bodies, alongside substantial increases in aquaculture and built-up areas from 2001 to 2021. Projections indicates that these trends will continue through 2041, with further declines in agriculture, vegetation, barren land, and water bodies, accompanied by continued growth in aquaculture and built-up areas.