Future Temperature-Induced Heating Demand in Buildings: Regional Patterns and Renewable Energy Implications in Poland

This study determines the forecasted heat demand in buildings by analysing downscaled data from different models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to the year 2100. The differences in calculated useful energy for space heating were interpreted, comprising the same residential building construction in different locations in Poland as case studies. The study shows how heat demand changes with temperature variations in different regions of Poland in the future. Results for each decade from 2031–2040 to 2091–2100 were compared with a baseline based on the Typical Meteorological Year (TMY). The net energy need decreases in all locations, on average by 7.6% by 2091–2100. The magnitude of the reduction differs strongly between regions. It ranges from 9.5–16.9% in northern and western cities (Gdańsk, Szczecin, Zielona Góra, Poznań, Olsztyn) to only 1.4–5.8% in eastern and central-eastern ones (Lublin, Warszawa, Białystok, Katowice). The regional pattern of demand persists throughout the century. The same building in Białystok requires about twice as much energy for space heating as in Gdańsk, and this ratio increases slightly, from 2.0 to 2.3.