Integrating geospatial modelling and landscape metrics to assess urban growth dynamics in Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria

The unprecedented rate of urbanisation in Nigerian cities has altered land use patterns, threatened ecological integrity, and increased pressure on land resources. Despite these challenges, integrated assessments that combine land use transition modelling with landscape structure analysis remain underexplored, specifically in the growing medium-sized cities such as Oye-Ekiti. This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) change, landscape fragmentation, and future urban growth in Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria, between 1987 and 2025, with projections to 2065. An integrated geospatial framework combining supervised image classification, Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modelling, transition probability analysis, and class-level landscape metrics was employed. The results revealed that built-up land increased from 3.12 km 2 (0.7%) in 1987 to 94.23 km 2 (21.7%) in 2025 and is projected to reach 132.15 km 2 (30.4%) by 2065. In contrast, forest cover declined from 70.44 km 2 (16.2%) to 49.77 km 2 (11.4%) and is projected to decrease further to 41.94 km 2 (9.6%), while cultivated land decreased from 173.47 km 2 (39.9%) to 114.09 km 2 (26.2%). Transition probability analysis indicated strong persistence of built-up land (0.8281) and substantial conversion of forest and rock outcrop to cultivated and urban land uses. Landscape metrics further revealed increasing fragmentation of natural land covers alongside progressive consolidation of urban patches, reflecting continued spatial restructuring. By integrating land use transition modelling with landscape metrics, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of urban growth processes and their ecological consequences. The findings provide evidence to support sustainable urban planning, landscape conservation, and evidence-based land management in rapidly urbanising cities in Nigeria and comparable developing regions.