Systematization of risks in foreign economic activity in conditions of monetary instability: development of scenario profiles

In the context of monetary instability, geopolitical turmoil, and currency fluctuations, traditional approaches to classifying the risks of foreign economic activity (FEA) have a narrow scope of application. The purpose of this article is to systematize the risks of FEA, taking into account monetary factors, and to develop scenario profiles for their assessment in various macroeconomic regimes. To achieve this, the existing classification models have been systematized, and their main drawbacks have been identified in the context of current challenges. A multidimensional classification of FEA risks has been proposed, focusing on the development and support of decision-making in the context of monetary instability. The scenario profiles developed based on the Bank of Russia's forecasts allow for distinguishing risks based on their sensitivity to basic monetary parameters. The principles of using the profiles in management practice are presented. The research results can be used to develop flexible foreign trade risk management strategies and adapt risk management tools to changes in the external environment