Meta-analysis of 990 EBV genomes identifies EBER2 SNP7048 and its interaction with HLA-A*11:01 driving nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a major health burden in East and Southeast Asia (SEA). While EBV infection is a primary driver, the specific viral strains responsible for NPC development and their interaction with host genetics across geographically diverse endemic regions remain poorly understood. We performed a whole-genome sequencing of 388 EBV isolates and matched host whole-exome sequencing in a Singaporean cohort. To define the global significance of these findings, we conducted a meta-GWAS and phylogenetic analysis across three independent cohorts (Singapore, Hong Kong, and Guangdong and Guangxi provinces of China), totaling 990 EBV genomes. Our study identifies high-risk EBV strains—carrying a core variant in the EBER2 locus (SNP7048)—as the key viral determinator of NPC risk, accounting for approximately 68% of the attributable risk in SEA. Meta-analysis reveals these strains are consistently associated with NPC across all populations, resolving previous regional genetic discordances. We demonstrate a potent synergistic interaction between these EBV risk strains and the host HLA-A*11:01 protective allele; individuals lacking this protection while carrying a high-risk strain exhibit a 30.9-fold increase in NPC risk. Phylogenetic analysis further reveals that these high-risk lineages populated SEA through clonal expansion from Southern China, following historical migration routes. These findings establish that NPC development is driven by the distribution of specific high-risk EBV lineages and their synergistic interaction with host immune susceptibility. This provides a definitive genetic framework for precision population screening and early diagnosis of NPC in the endemic regions.