Unlocking digital agriculture through new quality productive forces: nonlinear thresholds and spatial spillovers in China

New quality productive forces (NQPF) critically enable agricultural digitisation. Using China as a case study, this paper employs panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2022. The results show that NQPF has a significant promoting effect on agricultural digital transformation and exhibits positive spatial spillover effects, driving not only local transformation but also the development of surrounding regions. Labour skills and innovation capacity play mediating roles in this process. Notably, the enabling effect of NQPF on agricultural digitisation displays significant regional heterogeneity. Threshold analysis indicates that its promoting effect follows a non-linear pattern, characterised by a double threshold effect. Therefore, the development of NQPF should be accelerated, with emphasis placed on regional coordination and talent cultivation, to promote the sustained and in-depth advancement of agricultural digital transformation in accordance with local conditions.