Spatial–temporal coupling coordination and multi-scenario simulation of the urban resilience complex systems in the Yellow River Basin

Enhancing urban resilience (UR) is critical for sustaining urban development and safeguarding resident well-being, particularly in ecologically fragile regions exposed to climate change and natural hazards. This study constructs an integrated framework that combines multidimensional assessment, coupling coordination, and scenario prediction to evaluate UR across the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Using a comprehensive indicator system, we quantify UR, trace its spatiotemporal evolution from 2010 to 2021, calculate the coupling coordination degree (CCD) among its economic, ecological, infrastructure, and social subsystems, and project UR under four development scenarios up to 2035. Three key findings emerge. First, UR improved markedly in most cities over the study period, with downstream cities gradually overtaking the middle and upper reaches after 2010, and non-resource-based cities ranking above resource-based ones. Second, by 2021, CCD in most cities had reached a good coordination level, with a significant positive spatial correlation across the basin. Third, projections show that by 2035, relative to the 2021 baseline, the sustainable resilience development pathway would raise UR by approximately 11.5%, while the other three pathways would yield gains ranging from 7.2% to 7.5%. This framework offers methodological guidance for resilience research in ecologically fragile basins and supports policy efforts to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals.