Who will win the 2026 US midterm elections?Featuring a collection of 17 new forecasting articles, the special issue provides new perspectives on how we predict American midterm elections.From new methods using Artificial Intelligence or betting markets to classic politicaleconomy or state level models applied to the complex political landscape of 2026, from predicting individual Senate races to who will control the governors' mansions, this collection not only helps us to predict the outcome of these critical elections, but shines new light on our understanding of American politics in 2026.This introduction sets out the context of these elections, and discusses the particular challenges that forecasters had to contend with, including partisan polarization and substantial mid-decade redistricting, and introduces each of the 17 articles.The contributions to this special issue include forecasts for the House, the Senate and for gubernatorial contests with a variety of classic and novel methodologies and approaches, along with commentary and conceptual notes on forecasting.While all included forecasts for the House of Representatives predict a victory for the Democratic Party, forecasts are split when it comes to the fortune of the Senate, leading us to expect a close and contentious electoral contest.
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Kenny et al. (2026) studied this question.
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