Event predictability modulates production and comprehension of referring expressions

When speakers choose how to refer to a previously mentioned character in the presence of several potential antecedents, they experience multiple competing pressures. Predictability is an important factor in this process, and its role in shaping speakers’ choices has been the topic of ongoing debate. Here, we examine how event predictability, viewed as a specific form of information predictability, shapes both the production and interpretation of anaphoric references. In Experiments 1a and 1b (free production), participants described events involving interacting characters. They used overt forms of reference, such as definite noun phrases, more often when describing surprising events compared to familiar ones. Speakers further produced fewer phonologically non-overt forms, such as zero anaphors, when events were surprising. This pattern is consistent with sensitivity to possible listener misinterpretation of non-overt forms despite them being grammatically unambiguous. In Experiments 2a and 2b (speech perception), listeners heard descriptions of the same kinds of events under varying levels of auditory noise. Listeners were more likely to interpret utterances containing unambiguous zero anaphors as if they contained ambiguous pronouns when this interpretation allowed them to construe a more plausible event, particularly under noisy conditions. Taken together, the results show that event-level expectations shape both referential production and interpretation: speakers favor more overt forms of reference for less predictable events, whereas listeners use event plausibility when interpreting potentially degraded input. This convergence between production and comprehension is consistent with audience-design accounts of reference and extends noisy-channel accounts of communication to the domain of anaphoric interpretation.