Circular Management of Urban Packaging Waste: A Qualitative System Dynamics Framework for Reverse Logistics and Sustainable Cities

Research on urban packaging waste examines recyclability, household behavior, collection, and reverse logistics, but rarely integrates these mechanisms in a packaging-specific urban feedback framework. This study develops a qualitative system dynamics framework centered on Dhaka, Bangladesh, with Chicago, USA, as a limited institutional reference rather than a quantitatively comparable case. Published literature, municipal reports, and secondary material-flow evidence inform a causal loop diagram comprising four reinforcing and two balancing feedback loops. Four qualitative scenarios examine packaging reduction, separation, recovery, processing capacity, and material reintegration. Bangladesh’s packaging sector consumed 937,242 metric tons of plastic in fiscal year 2019–2020 (48% of domestic plastic consumption). World Bank evidence reports approximately 646 metric tons of plastic waste collected daily in Dhaka in 2020, with 37.2% recycled. The analysis suggests that increasing source separation without corresponding collection and processing capacity can shift bottlenecks downstream, whereas coordinated interventions across reverse logistics and secondary-material markets may improve circularity. A static numerical sensitivity illustration provides indicative mass-balance outcomes, not calibrated predictions. The causal framework remains empirically unvalidated; future research should test its relationships using stakeholder evidence, material-specific data, and stock-and-flow simulation.