Can Energy Intensity Targets Improve Energy Efficiency in Chinese Cities?

Within China’s target-oriented governance framework, energy intensity targets constitute an important binding instrument through which local governments pursue energy conservation. Using city-level energy intensity target data for China from 2006 to 2022, this study empirically examines the relationship between energy intensity targets and urban energy efficiency. The results show that higher energy intensity target levels are significantly associated with greater urban energy efficiency. The benchmark estimates indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in the energy intensity target is associated with a 0.007-point increase in the urban energy efficiency score, equivalent to approximately 2.0% of the sample mean. Panel quantile estimates further show that the positive relationship between energy intensity targets and energy efficiency is stronger among cities located at higher points of the energy efficiency distribution. The mechanism analysis indicates that reductions in energy consumption, increases in fiscal expenditure on science and technology, and greater green innovation constitute important channels through which energy intensity targets enhance urban energy efficiency. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the effect is more pronounced in northern cities, non-resource-based cities, small- and medium-sized cities, and cities facing lower economic growth target pressure. This study identifies the relationship between energy intensity target levels and comprehensive energy input–output efficiency at the city level and provides new empirical evidence on how the target responsibility system affects energy governance performance through local government behaviour.