The evolution of shot selection in elite international basketball: Declining mid-range attempts in FIBA world cups (2014–2023)

This study examined temporal differences in shot distribution and offensive performance among the top eight teams across the 2014, 2019, and 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cups (192 matches). Shot attempts were classified as paint, mid-range, or three-point using official FIBA shot charts, and game-related and advanced performance indicators were obtained from the official FIBA database. Linear mixed-effects models examined differences across tournaments, Spearman correlations explored within-edition associations, and multivariable regression examined independent associations with offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions). Three-point attempts increased from 169 in 2014 to 238 in 2023 ( p < .001), whereas mid-range attempts decreased ( p ≤ .003). Three-point accuracy remained stable (35.2–37.8%; p ≥ .307), indicating that increased perimeter scoring primarily reflected greater shot volume rather than higher shooting accuracy. Paint-shot volume did not differ significantly across editions, although paint-shot accuracy was higher in 2023 than in 2019 ( p = .012). Assists and assist percentage were higher in 2019 and 2023 than in 2014 ( p ≤ .002). Offensive efficiency was higher in 2023, with greater points per 100 possessions and true shooting percentage than in both earlier editions ( p ≤ .048). In the multivariable analysis, true shooting percentage was positively associated with offensive efficiency ( p < .001), whereas turnovers were negatively associated with it ( p = .004). Overall, elite international basketball showed a clear shift toward greater three-point volume and fewer mid-range attempts, while offensive efficiency was more closely associated with shooting efficiency than with three-point shot share.